Southern Australia’s Dry Continues: What It Means for Agriculture

After one of the driest 12-month periods on record across large parts of southern Australia, many farmers are entering winter 2025 with deepening concerns. For grain growers, graziers, and those dependent on winter pasture growth or autumn break rains, the season is already running behind. And with cold-season systems still weak and patchy, the outlook remains uncertain.

A Missed Autumn Break in Many Areas

In key regions like the Wimmera, Mallee, southern SA, the WA wheatbelt, and parts of inland Tasmania, the autumn break has been either late, patchy, or absent altogether. Many paddocks remain dry and bare, with little topsoil moisture and poor germination rates where crops have been sown.

• Pasture establishment is delayed, increasing pressure on feed reserves heading into winter.
• Fertiliser applications are being deferred or reduced due to lack of moisture uptake.
• Livestock are being agisted, offloaded, or supplementary fed much earlier than usual.

Subsoil Deficits and Poor Rainfall Efficiency

Many areas are not just dry at the surface — they are deeply moisture deficient down to 30–100 cm, which impacts root development, pasture persistence, and crop resilience.

Even when rainfall does arrive, it is often in small, inefficient amounts that quickly evaporate or only wet the top 1–2 cm of soil. This makes it difficult to “get going” unless a solid multi-day system arrives — and so far in 2025, few of these have materialised across the south.

Cold and Dry: A Difficult Combination

For much of southern Australia, winter rainfall is critical — particularly June and July. But high pressure dominance, a weakened Southern Ocean storm track, and the lingering effects of a dry El Niño year may continue to suppress system strength.

Cold, dry winters create a challenging environment for pasture growth. Cool-season grasses and cereals grow slowly without moisture, even when temperatures are otherwise suitable. Grazing rotations may stall completely in regions like the midlands of Tasmania, the southern SA hills, or Victoria’s northwest.

What to Watch Going Forward

• SAM (Southern Annular Mode): If negative phases emerge in June/July, this could allow fronts to dip further north, bringing relief.
• Indian Ocean conditions: The IOD is currently neutral but bears watching — if it shifts positive again, dry conditions may persist through winter and spring.
• Stored feed and agistment availability: Early inquiry is wise in case widespread fodder shortages develop.

Risk Outlook for Winter 2025 (as of early May)

• Pasture Growth: Below average in most regions without a wet June. Relying on stored moisture alone is high-risk.
• Winter Crop Establishment: Patchy to poor in dryland systems unless significant rain falls by mid-June.
• Water Availability: Stock dams are low in many zones. Irrigators with stored water will be at a strong advantage.

Final Note: Farmers across the south are entering winter on the back foot. A shift in the pattern is still possible — but until then, this remains a season to manage risk cautiously, conserve moisture where possible, and act early on contingency feed and planning.