Australia’s Ski Season Is on Thin Ice: Warming, Snow Decline, and the Road Ahead

14 May

Australia’s ski season is under increasing pressure as climate change alters the delicate balance needed to sustain a snowpack. While some high-altitude snow depth readings, like those at Spencer’s Creek, still offer headline-grabbing peaks, the season itself is shrinking — starting later, melting earlier, and becoming more reliant on fewer, less reliable snow events.

🏔️ The Slow Fade of Winter: Is Australia’s Ski Season in Decline?

For decades, the Australian ski season followed a familiar pattern — a slow build from June, steady top-ups through July and August, and spring melt into September. But in recent years, that pattern has become more disrupted.

Winters still deliver snow, sometimes in generous quantities. Spencer’s Creek — Australia’s most watched snow depth site — has peaked above two metres in four of the past eight seasons. At a glance, that might suggest the snow season is holding up.

But dig deeper, and the signs of long-term decline are clear. The ski season is starting later, ending earlier, and growing more reliant on rare, high-impact snowfall events. The snowpack is thinning, particularly at lower elevations. And beneath it all, one driver looms larger than any other:

🌡️ Temperature Is the Key Driver of Snowpack Decline

While there’s debate over whether winter rainfall will decrease, stay stable, or increase slightly in parts of the Australian Alps, temperature is the critical factor that will determine the future of the ski season.

Here’s why:

More precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow, even during the core of winter.
Snowfall events are producing wetter, thinner snowpacks.
Fewer freeze days reduce consolidation and allow faster melt.
Rain-on-snow events are increasing and lead to rapid erosion of cover.

In short: it’s not just about how much falls — it’s about whether it sticks and stays cold enough to last.

🧊 Elevation: A Tipping Point Hidden in 200 Metres

The impacts of warming aren’t felt equally across the high country. Resorts below 1600 m, such as Mt Baw Baw, Selwyn, and parts of Mt Buller and Dinner Plain, are already struggling with unreliable natural snowfall.

These lower resorts have likely crossed a threshold: too few cold nights, too much rain, and too little snow retention.

Meanwhile, higher elevations — such as Spencer’s Creek at 1830 m — still occasionally reach solid peak depths. But this doesn’t mean all is well. It simply highlights that the difference between viability and failure is now just 200 m of elevation. That margin is shrinking, and it won’t hold forever.

❄️ Fewer Cold Fronts, Bigger Bets on Marginal Snow Events

One of the biggest shifts in recent years is how snow accumulates across the season.

Then:
The snow season gradually built up through winter, with frequent cold fronts delivering light to moderate snowfall with the occassional big fall. A reliable base developed over time.

Now:
The season often hinges on just one to three big snowfall events, usually from marginal systems that sit right on the temperature threshold. If they arrive slightly too warm or are followed by a mild spell, the snow base quickly disappears or the best and most consistent falls are confined to elevations above 1800m.

This “boom-or-bust” dynamic makes Australian skiing more unpredictable than ever. It’s no longer about building and maintaining — it’s about hoping a single system saves the season.

📉 The Future: Steady Decline or Sudden Collapse?

The decline of the ski season won’t necessarily be slow and linear. Research and climate models suggest that once certain temperature thresholds are crossed, abrupt changes are likely.

Possible timelines:

By the 2030s: Resorts below 1500 m may see frequent seasons with no natural snow cover.
By the 2040s: Mid-elevation resorts may experience entire winters without skiable natural snow, especially in warm El Niño years.
By the 2050s: Even high-elevation resorts such as Perisher and Mt Hotham may shift to artificial snow only, with natural cover becoming increasingly rare.

These projections are based on high emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5), but even moderate emissions pathways show a strong downward trend — just slightly delayed.

🧪 Can Snowmaking Save the Season?

Artificial snow production has improved drastically over the last 20 years, but it has its limits:

It still needs cold, dry nights — increasingly rare below 1600 m.
It can’t operate efficiently above about -1.5 °C wet bulb temperature.
It’s expensive, energy-intensive, and produces narrow, icy ribbons rather than wide natural coverage.

Snowmaking can extend the season slightly, but it cannot sustain a ski industry in the absence of regular natural snowfall — especially as energy costs rise and climate goals tighten.

🗓️ Recent Years: A Pattern Emerges

The past few seasons have shown what the new norm may look like:

2023: A promising start, but rapid late-season melt in August and September.
2024: A slow start and early finish, with resorts struggling to hold cover through August.
2025?: With current pattern and long-range outlooks showing warm and dry to persist into winter, this winter may follow suit.

We may not have seen the first completely snowless winter yet — but if current trends hold, it’s coming. Of course poor years have occurred in the past (2006, another dry year) but subsequent seasons saw a bounce back to more average conditions, but at some point that may no longer be the case.

🔍 Final Thought: The Year the Snow Didn't Come

At some point, likely within a few decades — perhaps sooner — Australia will experience a winter where the snowpack never forms. No natural base. No major snowfalls. No skiable terrain outside of artificial runs.

And when that season hits, it won’t be a blip. It will mark a shift — the moment when the ski season, as we knew it, quietly ended.

Meta Description: Discover how climate change is reshaping Australia's ski season. Explore trends in snow depth, marginal snowfalls, temperature impacts, and projections for the future of skiing in the Australian Alps.

Daniel Lester