The Weather Project · Frost & crop protection
Frost forecasts for Australian growers
Find the nights that deserve a closer look. Compare regional frost-risk guidance, check model differences and put cold weather into the context of your orchard, vineyard or farm.
Understand the product
What does the frost map show?
The map combines weather ingredients into a frost-risk index and displays categories from minimal to high. A score of 75 is an index value, not a 75% chance of frost. Use the categories to locate stronger signals and compare how the outlook changes between forecast times.
Why compare GFS and AIFS?
The two models can place cold air, cloud and wind differently. Agreement gives a useful common signal; disagreement highlights uncertainty worth monitoring. Compare the same location and valid time, and check the run printed on each image. Model disagreement is not itself a faulty forecast.
Where growers can use it
Vineyard and orchard managers can use the outlook to prioritise overnight monitoring, inspect protection equipment and identify sensitive blocks for closer attention. Crop stage, variety, exposure and cold-air drainage all affect the consequences of a cold night. A regional grid cell cannot resolve every hollow or slope.
Frost is not just a screen-temperature threshold
Leaves and buds may cool below the temperature measured in a standard screen during clear, calm conditions. A forecast screen temperature above zero therefore does not rule out surface frost. Windy cold outbreaks and radiative cooling also present different protection challenges. Use local sensors alongside the regional maps.
See what the maps look like
Examples illustrate the format and legend. They are not a live forecast briefing; use the forecast viewer for the latest available run and valid time. Select an image to open it at full size.
From the map to your site
Open the forecast viewer, choose your region and product, then read the model run and local valid date. Compare related maps over matching periods and check local observations before making a time-sensitive decision. Longer-range forecasts are best used for planning and reassessed as the date approaches.
NSW frost viewer → · Use the State Forecasts menu for another region, then select Frost Risk. Model and regional availability vary.
Common questions
Does a high score guarantee crop damage?
No. The index describes modelled frost-favourable conditions. Damage depends on plant temperature, duration, crop stage and local exposure.
How do I find my region?
Open the state explorer for your region and select Frost Risk. Use the model selector where available, then check local valid times on the maps.
Independent model guidance from The Weather Project. Check the map’s method, coverage and valid period. Regional guidance complements local measurements and crop-specific advice.